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Why BN will have a minimum swing of 10% voters back to them for the 13 General Election?


Tuesday, 30 October 2012
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In Selangor DAP itself the fraction had split between Tersesa, Ronnie and Teng Chang Khim fractions. PAS national split between the Professional and Ulamak. While in PKR there split between Azmin Ali and Khalid Ibrahim. Even in Penang there a great dispute between Karpal Singh and Ramasamy. While in Perak DAP the Ngeh & Nga vs Kulasegeran fractions.
Shen Yee Aun
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Why Barisan Nasional will have a minimum swing of 10% voters for the 13 General Election ?

1.       1% Swing of Online Media Political Penetration

-    Back in year 2008 Barisan Nasional is basically handicapped in the Cyber Space. But then now a lot of investment and development of new online troopers , online media and bloggers already came into the battle after Mac 2008 to fight politically in the cyber space.

-    10 000 Barisan Nasional total Cyber Troopers (quoted by Saifuddin Abdullah). Development of few neutral online media ( Malaysia Today , Free Malaysia Today ) and also a list other pro BN Media portal with the list of at least easily 1000 new bloggers in the cyber space. In addition to that a list of Barisan Nasional leaders, ministers, supporters and members had fully used the social networking like Facebook, Twitter and Youtube to reached out to Malaysian voters is already a clear indication where BN is no longer handicapped in the cyber space this round
-    Let us just be pessimistic where we just take 1% of the total online market. Even just 1% compared to last round 0%.

2.    1.0%  Swing of Pakatan Rakyat Internal Fighting
-    There nothing abnormal about internal fighting in any political party but then the political reality had reached a point where Pakatan Rakyat internal fighting is way had increases tremendously after Mac 2008.

-    Is normal for any political party or entity when they came into power where there will be personal dispute regarding the allocation of position, wealth, projects and etc. Whatever given to A then B, C and d will be unhappy and whatever given to B then A, C and D will be very unhappy. Is not easy to please everybody.

-    In Selangor DAP itself the fraction had split between Tersesa, Ronnie and Teng Chang Khim fractions. PAS national split between the Professional and Ulamak. While in PKR there split between Azmin Ali and Khalid Ibrahim. Even in Penang there a great dispute between Karpal Singh and Ramasamy. While in Perak DAP the Ngeh & Nga vs Kulasegeran fractions.

-    Let us just be also pessimistic. We just take 1.0% of swing from those unhappy voters and supporters included those who is being sacked, resign or leave any of Pakatan Rakyat political party. 1.0% from Pakatan Rakyat internal fraction.

3.    1.0 % swing do or die battle for Barisan Nasional
-    In any war or battle the individual or entity that is facing their last political survival and in desperation will do everything it takes to fight the war.

-    In the olden days Barisan Nasional component party took the general election for granted and very lightly but as we can see this round both Najib ( UMNO ) and Chua Soi Lek ( MCA ) is going all out for an extremely very brutal and aggressive political campaign and battle .

-    We also have to admit the facts where in the past there a lot of internal sabotage within Barisan Nasional component party.

-    We just take even MCA for an example where their membership is more than 1 million Malaysian Chinese.

-    Their previous Mega 10 Mega Dinner manage to create a history in MCA where they hit 6000 – 150000 crowds in all the division or states that they have organized.
-    Even just another 1.0% swing ( extremely pessimistic ) this round then this factor will contribute another 1.0% of swing voters for BN.

4.    1 % Swing of Tun Mahathir Factor
-    Not even a single political analyst had written off Tun Mahahtir contribution and influence in Mac 2008 General Election
-    This round no doubt politically he still do have his own personal agenda but at least he is now back towards BN and UMNO and actively campaigning for UMNO
-    Although last round he play an extremely crucial role in the last General Election but this round we just be pessimistic to get just another 1% swing of our Malaysian under Tun Mahathir influence and switching back of his support towards Barisan Nasional and UMNO.

5.    1% Swing of Malaysian Malays and Indians Voters
-    Although many political analyst had predicted that Indian voters has swing back from as low as 20% back then to now as high as 60 – 65% and also the swing of 65-75 % of Malays voters this round
-    We again be just pessimistic to get another swing of 1% from this race category of voters this rounds

6.    1% of Promises Not Delivered and List of Pakatan Rakyat Scandals and Problems
-    Is a norm for any political party when they became they government they will usually be in the position to be attacked by the opponent or people.

-    Since after Mac 2008 Pakatan Rakyat first time in the history had manage to take over 4 states in Malaysia. No doubt that under their administration they are both good and bad development and changes.

-    Just let say we take those people who just look at their weakness and mistake and also not happy with a list of promises that they fail to deliver , list of scandals that prove that they are no difference from BN and also some who never personally felt there any much changes after Pakatan Rakyat took over.

-    Let us be pessimistic again. We just take another 1% of category swing of voters from this category.

7.    1% swing of Chinese Voters
-    BN is currently just having about 20-30% of the Chinese segment of voters supporters
-    MCA had been very aggressive to give us funding to all the Chinese School development and also with the help from the Federal Government.


-    MCA also had been very vocal and assertive and PAS HUDUD Issue

-   MCA under Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek is way much more strategic , pragmatic , strong , brave , more united and currently running on high spirit , morale and momentum

- There also a list of MCA new development funding like 1 MCA Medical Care, Education Loan , Micro Credit and etc that had benefited thousands of people.

- MCA will not only retain its 15 parliament seats but it may even see its seats increase to 30 or so if it can talk common sense like what Chua Soi Lek said about hudud. ( Raja Petra )

-    Just be pessimistic  again where let say there just another even 1% swing of Chinese voters who buy this few factor .

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